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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn]: Will the emerging market continue? The Bank of Japan will discuss the reduction in bond purchases." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 16, during the Asian market on Monday, spot gold opened up, touching $3,450 at the beginning of the session. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensified after Israel launched an attack on Iranian energy facilities over the weekend; oil prices also rose sharply, U.S. crude oil opened more than 5% higher, once hitting $77.49/barrel due to market concerns about supply and concerns that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Trump said that the United States will continue to support Israel's defensive actions.
Last Friday, Israel launched violent air strikes on Iran, attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories and killing a large number of military aihuatrade.commanders. Iran's national news agency Iran reported that in retaliation, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel.
Israel's main ally, U.S. President Trump urged Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, suggesting Tehran rejected the U.S. ultimatum in negotiations to restrict uranium enrichment, and was blamed for the attack.
Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis InvestmentManagers in Boston, said, "Historically, the market reacts subconsciously in the face of such geopolitical events, and history tells us that we should often ignore such events. There are several things worth emphasizing. This tripHow long will the movement last? Obviously, the longer the duration, the more severe the impact of confidence will be, which will eventually put pressure on the market. ”
In the context of the Middle East conflict, investors have largely ignored data on the first rebound in U.S. consumer confidence in June in six months. Data released by the University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday showed that the consumer confidence index jumped to 60.5 this month, surpassing Reuters’ survey expectations of economists.
Monex’s Perez said: “The problems we face this year have hit the market’s confidence in the dollar, and it is very difficult to solve them one by one. But at the same time, in the event of military or armed conflict, there seems to be a consensus around the world: the safest asset in history should be turned to the safest asset - the US dollar as a safe haven currency and gold as a safe haven aihuatrade.commodity. ”
Asian market
China's latest economic data for May painted a mixed picture. Industrial production rose 5.8% year-on-year, lower than expected 6.0%, reflecting continued weakness in external demand. Previously, exports to the United States fell sharply -34.5% year-on-year despite some tariffs cancelled in mid-May. However, the full impact of tariff reduction is expected to be more obvious in June.
Retail sales, by contrast, were a highlight, up 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the 5.0% expectation. The government will use the The rebound was supported by its electrical appliances and car trade-in schemes that actively boosted consumer spending. The Ministry of aihuatrade.commerce reported that the activity had generated sales of more than RMB 1.1m this year.
However, fixed asset investment remained a drag, up only 3.7% year-on-year from the beginning of the year, aihuatrade.compared with an expected 3.9%. Real estate investment continued to be weak, down 10.7% in the first five months of the year, highlighting the ongoing pressure on the property industry.
New Zealand's service sector fell sharply in May, with BusinessNZ service industry Performance index plummeted from 48.1 to 44.0, the lowest since June 2024. Activity and new orders led the decline, down from 46.7 and 50.2 to 40.1 and 43.2, respectively, as businesses reported widespread weak demand. Employment also dropped slightly from 47.9 to 47.2.
Local sentiment painted an equally grim picture. Respondents' negative aihuatrade.comments rose to 65.6% from 61.8% in April. aihuatrade.companies said lower consumer spending, lower incomes, and inflation, interest rates and economic outlook The uncertainty increases. Many customers report that customers are delaying decision-making and becoming more cautious in spending, reflecting typical trends during periods of economic stress.
BNZ senior economist Doug Steel noted that the PSI plunge followed an earlier decline in the manufacturing performance index, strengthening signs of general fragility in the economy. As both key industries are now shrinking, there is growing concern that New Zealand may “return to recession.”
European market
European market
European market
European trade data for April show external demandSigns of weakening, aihuatrade.commodity exports fell -1.4% year-on-year to 243.0B euros, while imports rose slightly by 0.1% year-on-year to 233.1B euros. Despite the decline in exports, the region maintained a trade surplus of 9.9B, aided by weak import growth. Internal trade in the euro zone also declined, down -2.0% year-on-year to 217.3B euros.
Across the EU, the trade situation reflects similar pressures. EU exports fell -1.9% year-on-year to 218.2B euros, while imports rose 0.5% year-on-year to 210.7B euros, with a surplus of 7.4B euros. Internal EU trade fell -1.7% year-on-year to 341.9B euros.
Although exports to the United States are still a highlight, up 3.8% year-on-year, exports to China plummeted -15.9% year-on-year. In terms of imports, the EU's purchase volume from China increased by 8.4% year-on-year. Imports from the United States increased slightly by 2.4% year-on-year.
Eurozone's industrial production fell sharply in April -2.4% month-on-month, far lower than expected -1.6%. Output in all major categories decreased, with non-durable consumer goods falling the most at -3.0%. Capital goods, energy (-1.1%) and intermediate products (-0.7%) also showed contraction. Durable consumer goods fell slightly by -0.2%, with little relief in the otherwise bleak report.
At the EU level, driven by sharp declines in Ireland (-15.2%), Malta (-6.2%) and Lithuania (-3.0%), industrial output fell by -1.8% month-on-month. Although a few economies such as Denmark (+3.5%) and Luxembourg (+3.2%) achieved slight growth, the situation in the region remains weak.
US Market
Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iraq-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with an unprecedented scale." Iran should reach an agreement.
According to AXIOS: A senior U.S. official confirmed that over the weekend, Israel had a chance to eliminate Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei, but Trump made it clear to Netanyahu that he opposed the action.
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