The United States may intervene in the Iraq-Israel conflict! Netanyahu reveals conspiracy to "assassinate Trump" and the Bank of Japan is about to turn

On June 16, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.27. Last Friday, markets bought safe-haven assets as Israeli attacks on Iran led to a heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The US dollar index rose, regaining the 98 mark and finally closed up 0.31% to 98.14. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.4046%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.9580%. Spot gold once stood above the $3440 mark in the early trading, and then maintained a wide fluctuation, finally closing up 1.41%, closing at $3433.35/ounce; spot silver hit the intraday high of 36.62 and then fell back, finally closing down 0.12%, at $36.29/ounce. International oil prices rose sharply due to the tension in Israel and Iran, which has caused investors to worry about the hindrance of oil exports in the Middle East. WTI crude oil once rose more than 13%, the largest intraday increase since 2022, and finally closed up 5.94% to $72.91 per barrel; Brent crude oil once exceeded $76 per barrel, the first time since February 21, and finally closed up 5.85% to $74.38 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.27. The dollar rose against major currencies such as the euro and the yen last Friday, and Israeli attacks on Iran led to intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and markets bought safe-haven assets. Markets will focus on Fed's resolution this week, with markets generally expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and investors will pay attention to the latest forecasts of the Fed that will reveal the importance of policy makers on recent weak dataand the extent of risks they believe are pending trade and budgetary issues and the intensified conflict in the Middle East. Technically, if the US dollar index returns below the support level of 99.00–99.20, it will move towards the next support level in the range of 96.70–96.90.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1536. Despite the pullback, the euro/dollar appears ready to resume its uptrend as ECB officials become slightly hawkish and news of U.S. negotiations with China may provide relief to investors. However, the escalation of the Israel-Iran war puts downward pressure on the pair. Technically, if the EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1570 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.1685–1.1700.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3546. The Bank of England will also usher in an interest rate decision this week. Data released this week showed that the UK economy shrank by 0.3% in April, and the UK's unemployment rate rose, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts. News of a decline in UK GDP also indicates that the Bank of England may cut interest rates in August. He said GDP fell 0.3% in April, supporting the unsustainable view of a 0.7% increase in the first quarter. But the second-quarter data could exaggerate the extent of economic weakness, thereby alleviating concerns about the recession. However, Dales said the country's economy will be dragged down as new tariffs lead to weak overseas demand and domestic aihuatrade.companies cut spending to make up for the rising costs caused by tax increases in April. He added that these factors are not enough to prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates next week. Technically, GBP/USD is moving towards resistance at 1.3620–1.3640 as traders focus on overall market sentiment. A breakout above the 1.3640 level will open the way for testing the 1.3735–1.3750 resistance level.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3436.14. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets. In early Asian trading on Monday, gold prices rose 0.6% to above $3,450 per ounce, about $50 away from the all-time high in April. The sudden rise in geopolitical risks has added more momentum to the rise in gold prices, which is driven mainly by the threat of Trump's radical tariff agenda to global economic growth. Gold rose by more than 30% in 2025, and central governmentsThe search for a shift from the US dollar to diversification is another important driving force.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the price trend on the daily chart is bullish. If gold can settle above $3,430, it may push the gold price to an all-time high of $3,500. If it falls below $3430, the gold price may pull back to $3400 or $3360.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 73.84. As tensions in the Middle East continue over the weekend, oil prices may benefit from geopolitical tensions, with the focus on Iran's retaliation measures, whether they involve the Strait of Hormuz. If relevant aspects are touched, the increase in oil prices may expand sharply, and the US oil price threshold at the beginning of the year may break through rapidly; in addition, the oil market will also usher in the OPEC monthly report next week, and the IEA monthly report is worth paying attention to.

Technical surface: Technical daily chart, last Friday's bullish momentum pushed prices to decisively break through the 100-day and 200-day SMA, enhancing the possibility of further rises. The overlap with the long-term Fibonacci level adds credibility to the breakthrough. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily time frame is currently at 76, showing an overbought status. However, as the geopolitical background intensifies, fundamental support may eventually overcome short-term weakness. On the weekly chart, WTI broke through $63.29 12-week SMA after Iran’s upgrade with Israel, marking a key shift in sentiment. aihuatrade.comThis surge pushed the price to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $74.11. The 12-week SMA continues to provide support around $63.31, highlighting the strong foundation for the bulls.

Forex market trading reminder on June 16, 2025

① To be determined OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report

②09:30 Monthly price report on residential prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China

③10:00 China's total retail sales of consumer goods in May year-on-year

④10:00 China's industrial added value above scale in May year-on-year

⑤20:30 US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June

The above content is about "[Ihua Foreign Exchange]: The United States may intervene in the conflict between Iran and Israel! Netanyahu revealed that "assassination of Trump" conspiracy, and the Bank of Japan is about to turn around", which was carefully aihuatrade.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactionshelp! Thanks for the support!

After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. In order to facilitate future work, we must analyze, study, summarize and concentrate the experience and lessons of previous work, and raise it to the theoretical level to understand it.