Israeli raids Gaza boost gold approaching $3,040, US dollar index hits a five-month low

On March 19, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.19. On Tuesday, the US dollar index continued to be sluggish, hitting another five-month low, and finally closed down 0.288% to 103.4. The yield on U.S. Treasury fell slightly, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on U.S. Treasury, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.048%. Thanks to the escalating tensions in the Middle East boosting safe-haven demand, spot gold rose to a record high of nearly $3,040 per ounce, hitting a high of $3,038.23 per ounce, and ended up 1.1% at $3,034.13 per ounce. Spot silver failed to successfully recover the 34 mark and finally closed up 0.19% to $33.84 per ounce. As Putin agreed that Russia and Ukraine would not attack each other's energy infrastructure construction for 30 days, international oil prices fell. WTI crude oil reversed intraday V and finally closed down 1.06% at $66.53 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.88% at $70.06 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.19. In terms of U.S. data, the number of building permits in February slightly exceeded expectations, but fell from the level in January. The surge in housing starts reflects that the real estate market remains strong despite widespread economic uncertainty. Export and import prices rose more than expected, exacerbating inflation concerns. Strong growth in industrial production shows that U.S. manufacturing is resilient. Technically, if the US dollar index closes below the support level of 103.20–103.40, it will move below the range of 102.00–102.20A support level.

Euro: As of press time, aihuatrade.comEuro/USD hoveres around 1.0933. The euro/dollar rose slightly on Tuesday, up one-fifth of 1% and continued to test the 1.0950 area. The Fed's upcoming rate hike meeting on Wednesday, fiber prices fell to a 23-month high as a broad market risk appetite firmly leaned towards risk appetite. The final data for the European Consumer Price Reconciliation Index (HICP) will also be released on Wednesday, but the final data is not expected to change significantly aihuatrade.compared to the preliminary data. ECB President Christine Lagarde will appear on Thursday as the EU Leaders' Summit will take place in the second half of the trading week. Technically, breaking through the resistance level 1.0920–1.0935 will push the EUR/USD to the next resistance level, that is, in the range of 1.1030–1.1050.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2997. The pound/dollar traded lightly on Wednesday, but it still fell slightly to the 1.3000 mark, hitting a 19-week high ahead of the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) calling for high-impact rates. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates stable this week, but a new update to the Federal Open Market aihuatrade.committee’s (FOMC) rate expectations will attract a lot of attention. Technically, if GBP/USD closes above the 1.3000 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading on the Asian session, gold trading around 3031.9. Gold soared above $3,000, hitting an all-time high of $3,038 on Tuesday as traders focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Reuters reported that risk appetite has deteriorated despite talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin eased some pressure on traders who agreed to stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities for 30 days. Despite this, gold prices continue to rise, with precious metals rising more than 15% year-to-date.

Technical: Gold prices tend to rise, ready to challenge the current year-to-date high of more than US$3,038. If the buyer clears the latter, they can test the $3050 and $3100 figures. It is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought. But the intensity of the trend suggests that the "most extreme" reading will be 80; therefore XAU/USD may continue to move higher. Conversely, if gold prices fall below $3,000, the first support level will be the February 20 high of $2,954, followed by the $2,900 mark.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 66.44. Oil prices have fallen as market concerns about global crude oil supply intensified. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks have weakened and investors remain cautious before the Federal Reserve is about to announce a monetary policy resolution, which is expected to provide more clues about the economic impact of the trade war. Previously, oil prices rose by 1.7% at one point due to Israel's military strike on the Gaza Strip and the United States put more pressure on Iran. Oil prices are heading for quarterly declines as escalating global trade war threatens crude oil demand, while OPEC plans to increase production from April.

Technical: As traders pay attention to the results of the phone calls between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the price fell. The United States and Russia continue to negotiate a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. A break below the $67.00 to $67.50 support will push WTI crude to the next support level, the $62.50 to $63.00 range.

Forex market trading reminder on March 19, 2025

①To be determined Domestic refined oil will open a new round of price adjustment window

②11:00 Bank of Japan announces interest rate resolution

③14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference

④18:00 Eurozone February CPI annual rate final value

⑤18:00 Eurozone February CPI monthly rate final value

⑥22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to March 14

⑦22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to March 14

⑧22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories in the week from the United States to March 14

⑨The next day, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced the summary of interest rate resolution and economic expectations

⑩The next day, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference on monetary policy

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