Trump questioned the Federal Reserve's policy, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 28

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell. Dow futures fell 0.06%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.07%. The German DAX index rose 0.52%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.11%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.72%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.50%.

2. Market news interpretation

Trump questioned the Fed's policy, and the US bond market fluctuations

⑴ Interest rate strategist of the US International Group pointed out that Trump's doubts about the Fed's policy are of no benefit to long-term US Treasury bonds. Trump criticized the Fed for slow pace of rate cuts, but it is unlikely to remove Powell from his post as Fed chairman.

⑵Strategic analysts believe that Trump will still appoint a new Fed chairman after Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

⑶ The US Treasury market experienced sharp fluctuations in April, but it seems to have stabilized at present. Tradeweb data shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.256%.

⑷ London Stock Exchange data show that money market investors have fully digested the expectations of a rate cut in July and believe that there is also a possibility of a rate cut in June.

The risk of global recession has risen due to the impact of US tariffs

⑴ Reuters' survey of economists shows that global recession risks have increased, and most economists believe that US tariff policies have damaged corporate confidence. Global growth forecast from 3.0%It was adjusted to 2.7%, while the International Monetary Fund forecast was slightly higher, at 2.8%.

⑵ U.S. President Trump imposed tariffs on all imported goods, triggering turmoil in financial markets, causing trillions of dollars in stocks to evaporate, and shaking investors' confidence in U.S. assets.

⑶ Survey shows that 92% of economists believe that the impact of tariffs on business sentiment is "negative", while only 8% believe that it is "neutral". Global aihuatrade.companies have lowered their revenue expectations due to increased uncertainty and high aihuatrade.commodity tariffs.

⑷ In the 2025 global growth forecast, the median of 28 of the 48 economies was downgraded. China and Russia are expected to grow by 4.5% and 1.7% respectively, outperforming the United States. Mexico and Canada's growth forecasts were significantly lowered, down to 0.2% and 1.2% respectively.

⑸ The growth expectation in 2026 also shows a similar trend, indicating that the downward trend of growth expectations triggered by tariffs is difficult to reverse. 60% of economists believe that the risk of global recession this year is "high" or "very high".

⑹The central bank's efforts to curb inflation through rapid interest rate hikes in the past few years have also been hindered by tariff policies. Tariffs are considered inflationary and may have a negative impact on real income and demand.

⑺More than 65% of major central banks are expected to fail to meet inflation targets this year, and this proportion will drop slightly next year.

The number of unemployed people in France increased significantly at the beginning of the year

⑴ The number of unemployed people in France increased significantly in the first three months of 2025, reflecting that concerns about trade tariffs have exacerbated domestic economic pressure. According to data from FranceTravail, French employment service platform, the number of unemployed people exceeded 3.4 million from January to March, an increase of 8.7% from the fourth quarter of last year.

⑵ Among people under 25, the number of unemployed people soared by more than 34%, showing the vulnerability of the young labor market.

⑶ Signs of slowing down in France's employment market appear in parallel with the rising uncertainty faced by aihuatrade.companies. The U.S. trade tariff plan further exacerbates the political and economic uncertainty of France as the second largest economy in the euro zone.

⑷ Large employers such as retailer Auchan and tire maker Michelin have said they will have to cut their workforce due to deteriorating economic conditions.

Eurozone Treasury bond yields rose slightly, and the market was waiting for economic data

⑴Eurozone Treasury bond yields rose slightly on Monday as news about U.S. tariffs were temporarily calm, and investors were waiting for direction guidance for economic data released later this week.

⑵ German 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 3.5 basis points to 2.5%, but is still close to the low end of the recent range. The German government announced a significant increase in lending and spending plans, which pushed the 10-year government bond yield to about 2.9%.

⑶ German Finance Minister Jorg Kukis said in a letter that Germany has applied to the European aihuatrade.commission for exemption of EU lending restrictions in order to increase defense spending in the next few years.

⑷This week's AmericanThe country will release PCE inflation and GDP data (Wednesday) and April non-farm employment data (Friday). Investors will be watching whether these data show the economic shock from tariffs, although this week's data may be too early.

⑸ Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting, but the probability of a 25 basis point cut in June is about two-thirds. If this week's data indicates a deterioration in the labor market, the market will be closer to aihuatrade.completion aihuatrade.com full expected rate cuts in June.

⑹Europe, Spain will release inflation data this Tuesday, and Germany, France and Italy will also release relevant data on Wednesday. If these data meet expectations, they will further strengthen market expectations that the ECB will continue to cut interest rates to support the economy.

⑺The yield on Italy's 10-year government bond rose by 2 basis points to 3.61%, while the yield on Germany's 2-year government bond rose by 1 basis point to 1.75%.

Europe credit default swap costs have declined, and the market is optimistic about the trade outlook

⑴ As investors' optimism about the trade outlook increases, the cost of using credit default swaps (CDS) to insure euro credit is declining. Russ Mould, director of investment at AJBell, pointed out in a report that the market responded positively to signs of easing tariff deadlock.

⑵ According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, the iTraxxEurope Crossover index, which tracks euro junk bond credit default swaps, fell 2 basis points to 339 basis points.

U.S. consumer inflation expectations soar, and the Federal Reserve face challenges

⑴U.S. consumer long-term inflation expectations have risen sharply for the second consecutive month, and this trend is unlikely to be a random anomaly or measurement error. The University of Michigan survey results show that consumer inflation expectations in the United States have risen significantly, in sharp contrast to the moderate increase in inflation during the post-epidemic period in 2021/22. Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of foreign exchange and aihuatrade.commodity research at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that inflation expectations are one of the main drivers of inflation.

⑵If inflation expectations continue to rise, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to ignore the inflation shock caused by tariffs. When long-term inflation expectations are high, inflation may rise further if the Fed fails to act. Leuchtmann stressed that the later the Fed intervenes, the higher the pain of subsequent measures.

⑶ Last week, Federal Reserve Director Christopher Waller said that the Fed should lower key interest rates if U.S. tariffs lead to higher unemployment (he believes it is after July). However, if inflation expectations rise simultaneously, this decision will become more aihuatrade.complex. Waller and colleagues need to weigh whether to accept the current high unemployment rate or risk the future worseRisk of cake consequences.

⑷ The market's indicators based on inflation expectations did not show the same upward trend as consumer surveys, but instead declined slightly at the beginning of tariff chaos. This shows that the market believes the Fed will control inflation in the long term, while consumers are more worried about the inflation outlook.

The decline in retail sales in the UK narrowed, but the outlook remains bleak

⑴ The decline in retail sales in UK in April was the smallest since October last year, but retailers expect the situation to worsen in May. A monthly survey by the Federation of British Industry (CBI) showed that retail sales in April fell 8% from the same period last year, an improvement from -41% in March.

⑵CBI expects retail sales to fall further in May, with the expected sales index falling to -33, the lowest level in more than a year.

Martin Sartorius, chief economist at CCLI, pointed out that despite a slowdown in retail sales in April, aihuatrade.companies remain pessimistic about the outlook, mainly affected by fall budget measures, continued weak consumer confidence and global economic uncertainty.

⑷Last week's official data showed unexpected growth in retail sales in the UK in March, but rising household spending and trade frictions have heightened concerns about economic growth and weakened consumer confidence.

⑸CBI also stated that wholesale sales in April fell at the fastest pace since January 2021 and are expected to decline further in May.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1360, an increase of 0.00%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after the euro and the US dollar reached overbought levels, they continued to trade below the EMA50 under the bear market correction wave. In addition, negative signals began to appear on (RSI), and the intraday level fell.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3344, an increase of 0.23%. Before New York, GBPUSD prices fell in recent intraday trading to test support from its EMA50, which provides temporary stability as short-term bear correction waves dominate.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3295.98, a drop of 0.61%. Before New York, gold prices fell on the last trading day, and negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continued due to breaking the short-term slightly bullish trend line, which was a aihuatrade.combination of gold successfully unloaded some oversold conditions through (RSI) in previous trading, noting the beginning of negative overlap signals that could strengthen the negative scenario.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 33.005, a drop of 0.15%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after relying on EMA50 support, silver prices gained some support in recent intraday trading and began to form a positive divergence on (RSI). After reaching an exaggerated oversold level aihuatrade.compared to the price trend, this helps the price rise at the intraday level with the emergence of positive signals. Taking advantage of this momentum, it is affected by breaking the bullish correction trend line on a short-term basis.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 62.940, a drop of 0.13%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices fell on the last trading day, and it was accompanied by a major short-term bear trend line. As negative signals on (RSI) began to appear, after entering the overbought level, relying on its EMA50 support to support the price to move to the present.

4. Institutional View

Mitsubishi UF: Even if the Bank of Japan is cautious about interest rate hikes, the yen may still strengthen

Mitsubishi UF's Lee Hardman said in a report that even if the Bank of Japan is cautious about further interest rate hikes at its meeting on Thursday, the yen still has room for appreciation. In view of the U.S. tariffs imposed, the Bank of Japan is expected to lower its economic growth and core inflation expectations this year. However, these forecasts should still show that inflation will still approach target levels in the next fiscal year, heralding further rate hikes. The slowdown in global economic growth will prompt other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to further cut interest rates and continue to narrow the yield differences with Japan, so the yen may strengthen further.

Dutch International Bank: Trump's questioning Fed policy is not good for U.S. Treasury bonds

Dutch International Bank's interest rate strategist said in a report that U.S. President Trump's recent doubts about Fed policy have not helped long-term Treasury bonds. The removal of Fed Chairman Powell seems out of the scope of discussion, but Trump criticized the Fed for slow pace of rate cuts. In addition, strategists say Trump will appoint a new chairman when Powell's term ends in May 2026. U.S. Treasuries went through a very volatile phase in April, although they appear to be stabilizing now. According to Tradeweb, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.256%. LSEG data shows that money markets show that investors have aihuatrade.completely digested the U.S. rate cut in July, and it is also possible to cut interest rates in June.

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